Liverpool could still make the Champions League under new UEFA regulations despite finishing fifth

Liverpool is currently expected to be eliminated from the Champions League for the upcoming season, but if they finish fifth once more in 2023–2024, things might be different.

Liverpool’s outside chances of making the Champions League for the upcoming season are still in jeopardy with less than two weeks left in the Premier League season.

The Reds are currently in fifth place after Monday night’s 3-0 win over Leicester City, one point behind Manchester United and Newcastle United. They have played one more game than both the Red Devils and the Magpies, though.

Because they are already guaranteed a top-six finish and qualification for the Europa League, they need at least one of Newcastle’s and Manchester United’s remaining matches to be won while winning both of their own remaining games in order to secure an unlikely top-four finish.

On Thursday, Newcastle plays their game-in-hand against Brighton and Hove Albion at home. Then, on Monday, they welcome Leicester City, before concluding the season away at Chelsea. While this is happening, United will play away at AFC Bournemouth on Saturday, host Chelsea on Thursday, May 25, in their game-in-hand, and play Fulham at home to end the season.

It is still a tall order for either of the two teams above them to lose the necessary points to make a Reds top four finish possible, even though Liverpool could pick up all three points in their remaining matches, at home to Aston Villa and away to already-relegated Southampton.

Some fans may have frantically questioned whether Jurgen Klopp’s team could sneak into the Champions League next season. Unfortunately, England would not receive a fifth qualifying spot if Man City were to win the tournament this season.

Liverpool will therefore be competing in the Europa League next season if they fail to unseat at least one of Newcastle United or Manchester United.

In reality, given the improved competition they will face, it appears to be harder for the Reds to qualify for the Champions League again next season.

Arsenal and Newcastle United are currently poised to benefit from the riches of Champions League football after years in the wilderness, while Pep Guardiola’s ruthless Man City will continue to bolster their squad as they always do. This summer, Manchester United may receive financial support from new owners, and Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur will both want to support their new managers in the transfer market.

Add to that the fact that Robert De Zerbi’s Brighton team nearly crashed the top four celebration this year. They are poised to have a sizable war chest of their own to spend as a result of high-profile departures. The Seagulls will be attempting to improve on their impressive season this year, though it is too early to declare them Champions League contenders.

Of course, Liverpool will also get better, with at least a midfield makeover planned for this summer. There is interest in Ryan Gravenberch, Mason Mount, and Alexis Mac Allister, and there are plans for more close-season business as well.

This means that in the coming years, the competition for Champions League football will likely get even more intense. It’s therefore fortunate that, although fifth place doesn’t currently qualify for the European Cup, that may soon change.

The 32-team Champions League competition will be expanded to 36 clubs starting in the 2024–25 season. Each of the 36 qualifying teams will play eight games—four at home and four away—with no longer being a traditional group stage. Instead, all 36 teams will be organized into a single league table.

First through eighth-place teams will automatically advance to the round of 16, with the knockout stages following that remaining the same as the current format. The eight winners of a two-legged play-off between the teams who place ninth through 24th will also advance to the round of 16.

So how will the four new competitors be chosen?

A further team will advance through the “Champions Path” qualifying process, which includes leagues outside the top 10 in the UEFA Country Coefficient. Additionally, the league that finished fifth in the UEFA Coefficients will receive a spot.

France currently holds that position, with their top two teams qualifying for the Champions League group stages and their third-place team moving on to the third qualifying round. The top three teams would automatically advance to the new league format under the new system, with the fourth-place team instead competing in the qualifying rounds as opposed to the Europa League group stage as before.

The last two spots will be held for the two nations with the highest coefficient scores for the current season. England and Italy would each receive a fifth qualifying spot in the Champions League if the new format had been implemented this year rather than in 2024/25. A Premier League team would have received one of the extra slots as a result in three of the previous four seasons.

Liverpool’s interim campaign has essentially arrived a year too early to benefit from the format change, which would have seen fifth place qualify for the Champions League.

And while winning the Europa League would help English clubs qualify for the Champions League group stages under the new format, winning the Europa League would also help them, assuming Premier League teams once again perform strongly.

However, when the 2023–24 season is about to end, Klopp will unavoidably be hoping that his team will be back to competing at the top of the table and vying for championships as opposed to merely qualifying for the Champions League.