Liverpool will hold off the challenge of Manchester City to win the Premier League title by two points, according to the latest calculations of a “supercomputer”.
In the real world, the Reds currently sit top of the table on 48 points, five clear of City – who have a game in hand.
It’s been a fine first half of the season from the Reds, who remain unbeaten in the league since that defeat to Spurs back in October.
While Jurgen Klopp’s side have a decent lead at this stage of the season, every fan without short-term memory loss will know that the challenge of keeping City at bay only gets tougher in the second half of the campaign – especially with Liverpool competing on multiple fronts and managing a host of injury issues.
The Reds face a tricky away tie against fellow title rivals Arsenal at the start of February, while the showdown against Pep Guardiola’s side at Anfield on 9 March could prove a key date in the title race, as finger nails start to disappear.
According to Bettingexpert’s supercomputer, BETSiE, however, Reds have little to fear as Klopp’s men will hold off the challenge of City to lift the Premier League trophy this May.
The latest calculations, updated after Liverpool’s 4-0 win over Bournemouth, give the Reds a projected final total of 81.9 points, with Man City trailing behind on 79.2.
That points tally would be a remarkably low one for City, who have only failed to hit at least 80 once while under Guardiola – and that was during his first campaign in charge back in 2016/17.
Arsenal, meanwhile, are calculated as most likely to finish third, ahead of Aston Villa – while Manchester United are stuck down in tenth.
In terms of final position probability, Liverpool are given a 50.5% chance of winning the league, compared to City’s 27%.
Well, the supercomputer simulated the Premier League season 100,000 times, taking into account “all match results from last season (across all competitions), pre-season results and the current season as it progresses, projecting the the season based on both pre-season expectations and xG earned both for and against during the season.”
Before you get too carried away, the BETSiE calculations differ somewhat from Opta’s own supercomputer predictions.
After crunching all the numbers, the famous football data experts give Liverpool a 36.6% chance of winning the league this year, while last season’s treble-winners Man City are given a huge 59.7% chance of becoming champions.
However, the Reds’ chances are getting better.
Klopp’s side were given just a 22.2% chance of winning the title on Christmas Eve according to Opta, that total having jumped up to 32.1% after victory over Newcastle United on New Year’s Day.
