The Houston Astros are likely to negotiate with the second-tier stars of this free agency class.
At the top of that list is Christian Walker, whom the team has been linked to several times in recent months. During the trade deadline, it was reported that the Astros were looking to trade for a first baseman.
Given the lack of output out of position over the last 18 months, he’d be a fantastic complement to this lineup.
While Walker might not be in the same tier as some of the other top players on the market, that doesn’t mean he’ll be cheap. It’s expected that he could be looking at a $100 million deal, as his bat has done nothing but improve every step of the way.
A late bloomer and already 34 years old, he might not get the benefit of the doubt in terms of a long-term contract, but at the very least, he should be looking at a high AAV deal.
Tim Britton of The Athletic predicted his future contract, writing that Walker would land a two-year, $44 million deal.
“Christian Walker didn’t get regular playing time in the majors until age 28, but the late-blooming slugger has turned into one of MLB’s best all-around first basemen.
“He’s topped an .800 OPS and won a Gold Glove award in three straight seasons while averaging 32 homers per 150 games. One of baseball’s premier defenders, Walker led all NL first basemen with 14 Outs Above Average in 2024.
“He might be too old to secure a big long-term payday, but Walker should have a sizable short-term market and could be seen by some teams as an appealing alternative to Pete Alonso given the likely massive gap in price tag.”
If Houston were able to land Walker on this type of deal, it almost feels like a no-brainer to be in the mix. Even if that number reaches $50 million, he’d still be an excellent signing for the price.
They won’t find anyone on the market who swings the bat at the level he does for that type of price.
Value is what the Astros need to find this winter, and he’d give them just that.
There are other options on the market who might be a bit better than him, most notably Pete Alonso, but considering he could be looking at a $200 million deal, Walker would be the better addition.
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THE BERGMAN QUESTION: Astros Weighing Risk and Reward
“Why hasn’t Alex Bregman signed a long-term deal yet?” Houston Astros fans have been asking themselves all week (month?). It’s a valid question. It’s not like the Astros didn’t know Bregman was going to hit free agency this offseason. Shouldn’t the Astros’ front management just make their last, best, and final offer to Bregman and finish this whole thing?
On one hand, that makes perfect sense. Astros GM Dana Brown has proclaimed that third base is the team’s priority this offseason. But now two weeks into the offseason, there’s been little to no movement when it comes to re-signing the two-time All-Star. What is going on?
Perhaps a recent poll at MLB.com will offer Astros fans some insight as to why Houston has been treading carefully during their negotiations with the free agent infielder. 16 MLB executives were asked who is the No. 2 free agent available this offseason behind Juan Soto. Only one position player’s name was uttered, and it wasn’t Bregman. It was Willy Adames.
Recent poll reveals why Astros are treading carefully in Alex Bregman negotiations
Blake Snell, Corbin Burnes, and Max Fried were all mentioned as well, but Adames stuck out as the lone position player. Moreover, some executives were brutally honest about Bregman and noted his decline in recent years. The fact that Adames plays a premium position (shortstop) and is a year-and-a-half younger also play into his favor.
There’s definitely some truth to those comments from opposing front office staff employees. After posting a 134 OPS+ in 2022, Bregman’s OPS+ dropped to 122 in 2023 and 118 this past season. According to FanGraphs, Bregman’s wRC+ was 137 in 2022, but that number faded to 126 during the 2023 season and fell to 118 in 2024. Are these nameless executives onto something?
When a player like Bregman is looking to ink a multiyear contract worth over $150 million, the Astros need to be sure they’re making the right investment. While Astros fans are tired of seeing so many of their homegrown players leave via free agency, it’s hard to overlook what’s happened to a player like George Springer and not have a little apprehension when it comes to Bregman’s trajectory going forward.
Many MLB experts believe that Houston and Bregman will inevitably get a deal done, but the opinions of fellow major league front office personnel may signal why the negotiations have been so slow at the outset.
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ASTROS’ AGGRESSIVE OFFSEASON: White Sox’s Top Player in Sights
The Houston Astros need some major help in the outfield, but how much are they willing to part with to upgrade?
It could be a transformational offseason for the Astros with their own superstars either hitting free agency or being popular in trade talks. Houston could be interested in bringing in their own star, though, as they were recently connected with one of the top names on the market.
In listing out the MLB players who are most likely to be moved this offseason, insider Jim Bowden of The Athletic listed the Astros as a team that made sense to be involved in Luis Robert Jr. trade talks with the Chicago White Sox.
“The White Sox claim they want to build around him, but let’s be realistic: Robert will turn 28 next August, he’s already halfway through his prime years and will be a free agent after the 2027 season. His trade value is high and Chicago needs to take advantage of it. If they can get seven solid-to-great prospects for both Garrett Crochet and Robert, their rebuild timeline could be expedited by two to three years,” said Bowden as to why the outfielder should be expected to be moved.
Robert has been an interesting case to follow over the last few years.
This past campaign was a massive disappointment following up his breakout All-Star season in 2023, but with his injuries that were combined with poor play by being part of the worst team in MLB history and constant trade rumors, it could not have been an environment conducive to positive results.
Still, he posted a .224/.278/.379 slash line with 14 home runs and 35 RBI in 100 games.
The 27-year-old fell apart in the second half of the season, which is a large reason his numbers are so bad. It will likely just be looked at as a down year as teams hope he can turn his play back around.
Houston makes sense as a fit, both as a team that needs another outfield bat and has plenty of intriguing offensive prospects to offer in return.
Astros center fielders combined for just a .220/.283/.351 slash line this past campaign.
While that isn’t too different from what Robert did, there is much less hope that Houston’s batters can improve as quickly as the White Sox slugger can.
Chicago will likely want bats in return, which is the strength of the Astros farm system.
Players like Jacob Melton, Walker Janek, Brice Matthews and Luis Baez could be interesting for the White Sox to consider. While it wouldn’t be all four batters, some combination would still be pricey.
