Blake Snell self-reported last Tuesday that he had signed a contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers by sharing a photo of himself in a Dodger uniform on Instagram.
ESPN’s Jeff Passan and Jorge Castillo then corroborated the rumor, including cash details, stating that the deal is for $182 million over five years. The move strengthens the Dodgers’ pitching rotation, which was held together with baling wire and glue for two rounds of playoffs and the World Series. The Dodgers used a bullpen game in Game 4 of the Fall Classic and were possibly planning to do so again in Game 6.
As Daniel Epstein reported here at Forbes.com, as of now, the Dodgers 2025 rotation will consist of Snell, Snell’s former Rays teammate Tyler Glasnow, Shohei Ohtani, who should be good to go early in the season after recovering from (some sort of) elbow surgery, Japanese sensation Yoshinobu Yamamoto, stalwart Clayton Kershaw (coming off two surgeries), potentially another Japanese sensation Rōki Sasaki (if the rumors are to be believed), maybe Dustin May (recovering from an esophageal tear), and any mixture of Tony Gonsolin, Michael Grove, Ben Casparius, and Bobby Miller. The signing of Snell, however, probably forecloses World Series hero Walker Buehler from returning to the club as a free agent.
As has been widely covered, Snell’s 2023-24 free agency didn’t go as planned. Early reports were that Snell and his agent, Scott Boras, were looking for a long-term deal in the neighborhood of $270 million, which would have outpaced the seven year, $245 million deal Boras negotiated for Stephen Strasburg in 2019, but which would have paled in comparison to the nine year, $324 million deal he got for Gerrit Cole in 2020. When asked about those lofty expectations during this year’s playoffs, Boras scoffed and told me that he never had his (or Snell’s) sights set that high.
In the end, just prior to the end of spring training last season, Snell signed a two year, $62 million contract with the San Francisco Giants, that included an opt-out after year one. Snell took home $32 million ($17 million signing bonus + $15 million in salary), and walked away from the remaining $30 million.
The exact financial terms of the new deal with the Dodgers are not yet official, but a league source states that there is a $52 million signing bonus, which offsets what Jon Heyman has reported is a $65 million deferral. Accordingly, the deal is worth roughly $170 million in present day value, meaning the hit to the Dodgers is only about $32.4 million per year for competitive balance tax purposes.
Assuming the above numbers are accurate, Boras has done it again. At the outset, he has procured a $36.4 million average annual value (AAV) for Snell, which is more than the $36 million AAV he got for Cole. Of note, Snell’s deal, while fantastic for the lefty, is considerably less than the $43.33 million AAV that Max Scherzer got from the Mets; however, Scherzer’s deal was for only three seasons.
Further, when Snell’s new contract with the Dodgers is added to his 2023 deal with the Giants, Snell received a total of six years and $214 million, which is nearly $36 million per year, and pretty much in line with what Cole got. But Cole got his big contract going into his age-29 season, while Snell was able to extract that value going into his age-32 season. Snell’s deal also incudes limited no-trade protection plus a $5 million trade bonus/penalty.
Scott Boras has repeatedly said that Juan Soto doesn’t want any deferments, so that may take the Dodgers out of the running for his services. But the deferral didn’t bother Snell, who now joins fellow Dodgers Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Shohei Ohtani, Will Smith, Tommy Edman (who signed a $74 million extension over the weekend with about $25 million deferred), and Teoscar Hernández (regardless of whether or not he re-signs with the team) as players who have deferred money in their contracts.
The Dodgers may remain in the market for another starting pitcher (Jack Flaherty?) and an outfielder (assuming they don’t re-sign Hernández and Betts actually does move back to the infield). But, with the signing of Snell on terms that are manageable, and by signing him early, the Dodgers have once again proven themselves to be best-in-class both on the field and in the front office.
