There is a fair bit of “rose-colored glasses” thinking going on when it comes to the Houston Astros’ efforts to retain Alex Bregman. There is no shortage of fans thinking that Bregman truly wants to return and that Houston will/should do whatever it takes to bring him back. Unfortunately, these sorts of situations are never that simple.

Bregman clearly knows this is his last opportunity for a big payday, and the Astros, frankly, have to weigh how much production they can expect from him on a six- or seven-year deal versus how much of their payroll such a deal would eat up.

Houston must also consider what other moves they wouldn’t be able to make if they opted to re-sign him. If either side wasn’t thinking about those things, it would be malpractice.

Even though most know all of that in their heart of hearts, Astros beat writer Chandler Rome laying out the case for why the Astros could easily not bring Bregman back was still a brutal dose of reality ahead of the Winter Meetings.

A fascinating winter meetings await the Astros, who are still in search of a direction during a pivotal offseason.

Chandler Rome’s explanation of why an Astros reunion with Bregman won’t happen is a true gutpunch
This is not a situation where a beat writer is baselessly flaming Houston, as Rome makes a lot of good points.

If the Astros want to make their future finances work with or without Bregman, they may be forced to trade one or both of the extremely valuable Framber Valdez and Kyle Tucker. With a minor league system that is currently lacking in top end replacements for those guys, the Astros’ future does seem unclear without significant spending.

Rome also correctly points out that the sheer amount of payroll Houston has tied up in dead money (Jose Abreu), injured players (Cristian Javier, Lance McCullers Jr.), and probable busts (Rafael Montero) is going to be a problem. For a guy like Bregman who wants to play for a perennial contender, that is a real red flag.

However, it is how Rome closes out the article that is pretty savage, stating, “Houston is still engaged with Bregman, but nothing in the franchise’s past suggests it will meet his asking price. Little in its present suggests it can fulfill his biggest priority.”

That is a very harsh take on what is still a pretty good Astros organization that keeps finding ways to win. Unfortunately, the assessment being harsh does not preclude it from being correct.