Last month, reports on Alex Bregman’s free-agent market predicted that the great third baseman could earn close to $300 million this winter. The Houston Astros’ first offer to Bregman appears to be significantly lower than such a large sum.
Houston offered the two-time All-Star and two-time champion a six-year contract worth approximately $156 million this week, according to MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart. Such a contract would be the greatest in franchise history, topping Jose Altuve’s five-year, $125 million deal signed before last season. Retaining Altuve, especially on a decreasing contract, was an easy decision for team owner Jim Crane.
But the economics for Altuve (who will turn 35 next season) and his infield mate (turning 31 just after Opening Day) are far different. Bregman is a plus bat, an excellent defender and one of the shrewdest minds in baseball, a player who is both still in his prime and worth more than his pure statistical output suggests.
$156 million is underslling Bregman’s value. $200 million is a more fair benchmark, and a number I suspect Bregman will ultimately surpass this winter.
The Astros managed to replace previous marquee departures with relative ease in recent years. Center fielder Chas McCormick emerged as a suitable replacement for George Springer in 2022 and 2023. Jeremy Peña replaced Carlos Correa, then won World Series MVP. There’s no heir apparent at the hot corner like Peña was for Bregman.
Mauricio Dubón is a strong fielder, but a slap hitter who brings the most value from his versatility. 2024 rookie Zach DeZenzo is a promising bat. He’s also not ready to be an passable fielder at third base at the MLB level, and there will still be growing pains at the plate.
The Astros could pursue an established third baseman via trade if Bregman leaves, such as Nolan Arenado of the St. Louis Cardinals, Ryan McMahon of the Colorado Rockies or Alec Bohm of the Philadelphia Phillies. All three likely arrive in Houston only at the cost of quality prospects, further draining an already suspect farm system.
The health of Houston’s baseball operations may depend on their owner’s willingness to spend to uncomfortable levels. Fail to sign Bregman, and two unpleasant paths await: make another risky, likely-prospect-heavy trade, or take a step back from championship contention in 2025.
Crane and general manager Dana Brown could be forced to either increase their offer or lose Bregman sooner than later. The annual MLB Winter Meetings will be held beginning Monday, and the week in Dallas could see a flurry of deals. Major money will be flowing when baseball descends upon the Metroplex. Whether Crane and Co. participate in the spending spree is the franchise’s most pressing current question.
